Fog in August: Winter Weather Prediction 2018-19

October is with us and Winter is just around the corner… we will just ignor that it is 80F still and we are having thunderstorms as if it were August.  That brings us up to our annual Fog in August report.  Just a reminder, the ole-timey idea is that for every day of fog in August, we will have a snow event during the Winter months.

But, this year has been so busy, that I never posted the results of the 2017-18 winter in our area.  Generally, we had a warm Fall (we were canning tomatoes up to Halloween!), then bitterly cold post-holiday months.   Our two half-hearted snows worth plowing occured in March 2018.

But, for the numbers, 2017 Fog in August predicted 17 snow storms.  Even though we had dry and cold weather in general, we still managed to have 14 light snow falls, 2 days with two to four inches of snow and one with eight inches of snow.  Total = 17 snow events.  For the record, we also had 20 days with some amount of rain and/or ice.  Yuck.

2018-19 Prediction

August 2018 was one of the foggiest we could imagine.  Fourteen days of light fog, six days of moderate fog, four days with dense fog, and one day of rain.  That gives us 25 days of fog (of the five days without fog, we were away two, thus we do not know whether we had fog for two more days… we’ll leave that be).

From the Hagers-town Town and Country Almanack, our local source, we have a count of six light snow events, twelve snow events, one heavy snow event, and five Nor’easters predicted.  That gives us 24 snow events for Winter 2018-19.

There you have it.  Twenty-five foggy days in August, twenty-four storms predicted.  Come November we can start the tally.

About hermitsdoor

Up here in the mountains, we have a saying, "You can't get there from here", which really means "We wouldn't go the trouble to do that". Another concept is that "If you don't know, we ain't telling." For the rest, you'll have to read between the lines.
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4 Responses to Fog in August: Winter Weather Prediction 2018-19

  1. KerryCan says:

    I’ve never heard this approach to predicting snowfalls! Now I wish I’d paid attention to the foggy August days . . .

  2. Yikes! That’s a lot of fog! When she was little, my daughter used to call it ‘the frog’. I always imagined frogs jumping around in the fog.

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